高级检索

    气候变化背景下贵州烤烟生长季气候适宜度评价分析

    Climatic Suitability Analysis of Flue-cured Tobacco Growing Season in Guizhou in the Context of Climate Change

    • 摘要: 为考察气候变化对烤烟生长适宜性的影响,基于贵州省83个气象台站1961—2020年温度、降水、日照等气象要素,采用数理统计、信息熵权和空间分析等方法,确定烤烟移栽期热量指标,构建烤烟气候适宜度模型,分析了贵州近60年烤烟不同生育期和生长季气候适宜度的空间分布和变化特征。结果表明,4月中下旬是贵州烤烟适宜的集中移栽期,近60年贵州大部植烟区适宜移栽期不同程度提前,以2011—2020年提前最明显。贵州大部地区气象条件均能满足烤烟不同生育期适宜生长的需要,其中,成熟期气候适宜度>旺长期气候适宜度>伸根期气候适宜度。1991—2020年较1961—1990年,贵州大部植烟区伸根期气候适宜度呈递增趋势,大部植烟区旺长期、成熟期和生长季的适宜度呈递减趋势。总体而言,受气候变化影响,贵州烤烟生长后期的适宜度呈递减趋势,增加了烤烟产量和品质的不稳定性。

       

      Abstract: In order to investigate the effects of climate change on the suitability for the growth of flue-cured tobacco, based on the meteorological elements such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration from 83 meteorological stations in Guizhou during 1961-2020, by means of mathematical statistics, information entropy weight and spatial analysis, the spatial distribution and variation characteristics of climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco during different growth periods and growing seasons in Guizhou during the past 60 years were analyzed via the heat index of transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco and the climatic suitability model of flue-cured tobacco build. The results showed that the suitable concentrated transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco in Guizhou was in mid to late April, and the suitable transplanting period in most of planting regions of flue-cured tobacco was earlier in different degrees in Guizhou in the past 60 years, with the suitable transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco from 2011 to 2020 having shfted earlier the most obviously. The meteorological conditions in most of the regions in Guizhou could meet the needs of suitable growth of flue-cured tobacco at different growth stages, among which, the climate suitability of the mature stage was the highest, then, the climate suitability of the vigorous growth stage was higher than that of the root elongation period. Compared with the climatic suitability from 1961 to 1990, from 1991 to 2020, the climate suitability during the root elongation stage in most of the planting regions of flue-cured tobacco in Guizhou showed an increasing trend, while the climatic suitability at the vigorous growth stage and the mature stage and growing season in most of the planting regions of flue-cured tobacco showed a decreasing trend. In general, the suitability of flue-cured tobacco in Guizhou at the later growth stages showed a decreasing trend in the context of climate change, which increased the instability of yield and quality of flue-cured tobacco.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回