Climatic Suitability Analysis of Flue-cured Tobacco Growing Season in Guizhou in the Context of Climate Change

In order to investigate the effects of climate change on the suitability for the growth of flue-cured tobacco, based on the meteorological elements such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration from 83 meteorological stations in Guizhou during 1961-2020, by means of mathematical statistics, information entropy weight and spatial analysis, the spatial distribution and variation characteristics of climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco during different growth periods and growing seasons in Guizhou during the past 60 years were analyzed via the heat index of transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco and the climatic suitability model of flue-cured tobacco build. The results showed that the suitable concentrated transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco in Guizhou was in mid to late April, and the suitable transplanting period in most of planting regions of flue-cured tobacco was earlier in different degrees in Guizhou in the past 60 years, with the suitable transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco from 2011 to 2020 having shfted earlier the most obviously. The meteorological conditions in most of the regions in Guizhou could meet the needs of suitable growth of flue-cured tobacco at different growth stages, among which, the climate suitability of the mature stage was the highest, then, the climate suitability of the vigorous growth stage was higher than that of the root elongation period. Compared with the climatic suitability from 1961 to 1990, from 1991 to 2020, the climate suitability during the root elongation stage in most of the planting regions of flue-cured tobacco in Guizhou showed an increasing trend, while the climatic suitability at the vigorous growth stage and the mature stage and growing season in most of the planting regions of flue-cured tobacco showed a decreasing trend. In general, the suitability of flue-cured tobacco in Guizhou at the later growth stages showed a decreasing trend in the context of climate change, which increased the instability of yield and quality of flue-cured tobacco.