Influence of Tobacco Farmers' Management Ability on Planting Intention of Flue-cured Tobacco in Bijie Tobacco Region

Identifying the influence of tobacco farmers' management on their willingness to grow flue-cured tobacco, is an important approach to address the issues of tobacco farmer attrition and aging. Based on a model of gradual adjustment, firstly the cost-benefit framework was employed to identify the relevant capabilities that influence tobacco farmers' decisions on tobacco growing. Secondly, by using a generalized ordered logit model, the survey data from 766 tobacco farmers in Bijie, Guizhou Province, were used to examine the influence of tobacco farmers' abilities on their willingness to grow tobacco. Tobacco farmers' planting decision is influenced by their land transfer ability, disaster prevention ability, employment ability and quality control ability. Family farmers have higher demands for land circulation ability than the large tobacco growers. When disaster prevention ability is insufficient, the traditional retail investor tend to reduce their growing scale, while the large tobacco growers tend to maintain or expand the scale. Tobacco growers with weak abilities of employment and quality control are even less determined to maintain or expand the scale. High education level and village cadre experience can enhance the confidence of tobacco growers to expand their scale, while younger age and migration experience have a restraining effect on tobacco farmers' willingness to expand scale. Based on the above results, in order to make policies for stabilizing tobacco farmers and tobacco fields, this paper puts forward suggestions from the following three aspects: improving land circulation and disaster prevention systems; comprehensively improving the employment and quality control abilities of tobacco farmers; and implementing precise services based on the profiles of tobacco farmers.