气候变化背景下鄂西烟草种植气象风险评价与区划
Meteorological Risk Assessment and Tobacco Planting Regionalization in Western Hubei under the Background of Climate Change
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摘要: 为了确定湖北西部植烟区的气象灾害风险程度,根据灾害学系统理论,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力4个子系统出发,综合考虑气候条件、地理地形、社会经济状况等多个因素,利用GIS平台对鄂西烟草种植气象灾害风险进行评价与区划。结果表明,鄂西北地区气象灾害危险性东高西低,南北向无明显规律,而鄂西南地区是南高北低;鄂西南巴东和恩施烟草易损性较小,而鄂西北的枣阳和丹江口市易损性较大;鄂西南北部地区的气象风险低于南部地区,而鄂西北南部地区气象风险较小,东部气象风险最大;神农架局部地区和鹤峰、丹江口市东部等地的气象风险最严重。总体而言,鄂西地区适宜种植烟草,尽管存在风险,但是大部分地区风险等级在中等及中等以下,这对指导当地合理规划烟草种植和生产具有重要意义。Abstract: Based on previous disaster science researches, we assessed and regionalized meteorological disasters via GIS in order to identify the degree of meteorological disaster risk in tobacco-planting areas of western Hubei. The assessment process was composed of four subsystems including disaster inducing factors, disaster-forming environment, disaster-bearing body and the capability of natural disaster prevention and reduction. The results showed that the risk of meteorological disaster in the eastern areas is higherthan the western areas in northwest Hubei.In southwest Hubei meteorological disasterrisk is high in the southbut low in the north.The vulnerability of tobacco planting is lower in southwest Hubei Badong and Enshi city and higher in northwest Hubei Zaoyang and Danjiangkou city.The meteorological risk in the north is lower than in the south of southwest Hubei. In northwest Hubei, meteorological risk is lower in southern regions and higher in eastern regions.Meteorological risk is the highest in some regions of Shennongjia and Hefeng, eastern Danjiangkou city. Overall, western Hubei is suitable for planting tobacco with risk levels at or below medium in most regions. Resultsfrom this study areimportant for planting reginaliation and production of tobacco.