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    高温热害气象指标对成熟期烟叶的影响评估

    Assessment on Meteorological Indexes of High Temperature Damage to Tobacco Leaves at Maturity Stage

    • 摘要: 为探究产生高温热害烟叶的主要气象因素,明确高温热害烟叶发生程度,运用主成分回归法分析江西省抚州地区2014—2016年6月中旬至7月上旬的相关气象指标与高温热害烟叶品质的关系,建立了热害烟叶等级评估模型,并根据烟叶实际品质进行回归分析检验。结果表明,产生高温热害烟叶的主要气象因素是热害期间最高温度、最大升温幅度、光合有效辐射和热害持续时间,高温热害烟叶等级评估模型分为3个等级:0.75≤热害指数(DHI)<0.97时,为1级,轻度热害;0.97≤DHI<1.13时,为2级,中度热害;DHI≥1.13时,为3级,重度热害。模型评估结果与烟叶实际质量评分呈极显著负相关,相关系数为-0.93,模型评估准确度较高达到83.3%。研究结果可为高温热害烟叶的监测预警和风险评估提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: In order to investigate the main meteorological factors of high temperature damage to tobacco leaves and detemine the degree of occurrence of high temperature damage to tobacco leaves, the relationship between the meteorological indexes and the quality of high temperature damage to tobacco leaves from mid-June to early July in Fuzhou, Jiangxi Province during 2014-2016, were analyzed by using the principal component regression analysis. The assessment grade model of high temperature damage to tobacco leaves was established and verified by the component regression analysis testing. The results showed that the main impact meteorological factors were the maximum temperature, the increasing extent of temperature during heat damage, the solar radiation, and the duration of high temperature. The three grades of evaluation index system for high temperature damage tobacco leaf:0.75 ≤ DHI<0.97, grade 1, mild heat damage; 0.97 ≤ DHI<1.13, grade 2, moderate heat damage; DHI ≥ 1.13, Grades 3, severe heat damage. The model evaluation results had a negative correlation with the score of tobacco leaves quality, and the correlation coefficient was-0.93, which passed the significant test at 1% level. The accuracy achieved up to 83.3%. The results can provide scientific basis for monitoring, warning and risk assessment of high temperature damage to tobacco leaves.

       

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