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    西南地区烟草潜在适生区预测

    Prediction of Potential Suitable Growing Areas of Tobacco in Southwest China

    • 摘要: 西南地区地形复杂,具有鲜明山地种植特征。为了研究该地区烟草潜在适生区,对西南地区191条有效烟草种植分布位点气候数据进行分析,采用最大熵模型Max Ent结合Arc Map明确影响典型烟草分布的主要环境因子,预测西南地区烟草潜在适生区。结果表明,经过训练后Max Ent模型AUC值为0.950。最干季度平均温度(℃)、最干月份降水量(mm)和最暖季度降水量(mm)3个生物气候因素是影响西南地区烟草生长的主要环境因子,贡献率分别为40.5%、30.3%和12.9%。云南省、贵州省和重庆市全域为烟草适生区。四川省西部、西北部存在较大面积低度适生区及不适生区。此外发现西藏林芝地区和山南地区存在高度适生区,阿里地区西南部存在少量中度适生区。气候生态位预测表明西南地区烟草高度适生区面积约为5.229×105km2。我国西南地区仍有部分烟草适宜种植区域有待开发。

       

      Abstract: The southwestern region of China has complex terrain and distinct mountainous planting characteristics.In order to study the potential suitable areas for tobacco cultivation in the region, an analysis was conducted on the climatic ecological niche of 191 effective tobacco planting sites in the southwestern region.The Max Ent model combined with Arc Map was used to identify the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of typical tobacco and to predict the potential suitable areas for tobacco cultivation in the southwestern region.The results showed that the Max Ent model had an AUC value of 0.950 after training. The three bioclimatic factors, namely, the mean temperature (°C) of the driest quarter, the precipitation (mm) of the driest month, and the precipitation (mm) of the warmest quarter, were the main environmental factors affecting tobacco growth in the southwestern region, with the contributions being 40.5%, 30.3%, and 12.9%, respectively. The entire Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province, and Chongqing Municipality are suitable areas for tobacco cultivation. In addition, it was found that the Linzhi and Shannan regions of Tibet have highly suitable areas, and there are a few moderately suitable areas in the southwestern part of the Ali region.The prediction of climatic ecological niche indicated that the highly suitable area for tobacco cultivation in the southwestern region is approximately 5.229×105 km2 There are still some areas suitable for tobacco cultivation in the southwestern region of China that need to be developed.

       

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