南平烟叶大田生长期降水变化的多时间尺度分析

Multi-time Scales Analysis of Rainfall Variation during the Tobacco Field Growth Phase in Nanping

摘要: 为了探索南平烟区烟叶大田生长期降水变化的多时间尺度规律,采用morlet小波函数对南平烟区10个县(市)1961—2005年降水数据进行了分析。结果表明,南平烟区烟叶大田生长期降水存在28年、11年、4年主周期变化。依据主周期的变化趋势,预测在2005—2015年南平处于降水总体上逐渐增多周期,其中2009—2013年降水较多,南平烟区烟叶大田生长期降水峰值出现在2010年、2012年、2015年,其中以2010年降水峰值最高,其次为2015年,再次为2012年。

Abstract: Based on the monthly rainfall data during the tobacco field growth phase from 1961 to 2005 in Nanping, we analyzed the changes of rainfall and the multi-time scales characteristics of rainfall in the past 45 years using morlet wavelet function. The results showed that rainfall variation during the tobacco growth phase in Nanping was influenced by three main periods (28 years, 11 years, 4 years). Based on the main period trends, we preliminary forecasted that rainfall is gradually increasing from 2005 to 2015, higher rainfall phase is approximately in 2009-2013, and rainfall peak register as 2010>2015>2012.